Economic Moats – Part 2 of 3

In last week’s article we covered the value proposition of economic moats, the four horsemen of false moats and two examples of sustainable competitive advantages. In this article, I will be going through two more economic moats that are extremely hard to breach.

Moat 3: Network Effect

The network effect is by far one of the most sustainable economic moats. It can be found in industries where the value of the good or service increases with the number of people using it. In other words, the most valuable network-based products will be the ones that attract the most users, creating a virtuous cycle that squeezes out smaller networks and increases the size of dominant networks.

By virtue of its characteristic, the network effect is much more common among businesses based on information or knowledge transfer than among business based on physical capital. This is because information is what economist call a “non-rival” good.

Rival goods are goods that can be used by only one person at a time. On the flip side, non-rival goods mean that one additional person using the good does not diminish the amount available to the next person. In today’s information age, there are more and more industries that can potentially build an economic moat using the network effect. Think of social media networks (Facebook, Instagram, Twitter), payment networks (American Express, Visa, Mastercard, Paypal), ecommerce platforms (Amazon, Alibaba, Ebay) and video sharing platforms (Youtube). The greater the number of users of these platforms, the greater the content, convenience and options there are and thus the greater the value provided to all users.

Even financial exchanges benefit from network effects. As more buyers and sellers aggregate on an exchange, there is greater liquidity. The added value to users of the network is that greater liquidity leads to lower spread, which reduces costs. That’s how futures exchanges such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (the Merc) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) become so profitable with wide moats.

However, the same cannot be said about stock exchanges which have weaker moats despite having deep pools of liquidity as well. This is evident by falling returns on capital of stock exchanges in recent years as competition has moved in while futures exchanges have maintained very robust profitability. The reason for this is that futures contracts are captive to an individual exchange – if I buy a futures contract on the NYMEX or the Merc, I have to sell it there. This means that liquidity is limited to each futures exchange. Whereas for stocks, liquidity is not limited to any exchange because people can buy on one exchange and sell on another.

The takeaway here is that for a company to benefit from the network effect, it needs to operate a closed network. When networks open up, the network effect can dissipate very quickly.

One way to identify network effects is to do some financial sleuthing to see whether operating income per node (customer/branch) increases as the number of nodes increases. This may be an indication that the value proposition to customers is increasing as the network expands, thus giving the company some pricing power.

Moat 4: Cost Advantages

When it comes to cost advantages, the question is not so much whether the company has cost advantages, but whether competitors are able to replicate it. Some cost advantages can be durable while others can easily be replicated by a competitor. In order to answer this question, we have to dig deep and find out how these cost advantages arise.

Another pertinent point to be said about cost advantages is that it matters more in industries where price is a large portion of the customer’s purchase criteria. The more price sensitive the consumer is with respect to purchasing the good, the greater the value of having a cost advantage is to the company.

Without further ado, let’s talk about the four ways of getting sustainable cost advantages.

1. Process advantages

In theory, process advantages should not exist long enough to constitute much of an economic moat. After all, if a company figures out a way to deliver the same quality for cheaper, competitors are sure to try and replicate it. This does happen but in reality, it takes much longer than one might expect.

Examples of businesses that have dug moats using process advantages are Southwest Airlines and Dell. Southwest did so by flying only one type of jet, minimising expensive ground time and cultivating a thrifty employee culture. Dell cut out distributors, sold direct to buyers and kept inventory very low by building PCs to order.

The real question is not how these companies achieved the cost advantages but why competitors did not just copy them. In the case of airlines, those premium airlines were unwilling to create a culture like Southwest simply because their business is built around treating some passengers like royalty and charging them for the privilege. As for Dell, its competitors were too reliant on the resellers and retailers. In both cases, competitors would literally have to blow up their existing business in order to replicate these processes.

However, fast forward both cases, their moats are significantly weaker today than they were five or 10 years ago. This is because new competitors have entered the industry and replicated these processes. So, process-based moats are worth watching closely because the cost advantages often slips away as competitors either copy the low-cost process or invent one of their own.

2. Advantageous location

These type of cost advantages are more durable than one based on process because locations are much harder to duplicate.

Mentioned in the previous article as well, waste and aggregate produce share a unique quality – low value-to-weight ratio. Thus, it is very uneconomical to transport these goods far away. So, companies with landfills and quarries located closer to their costumers almost invariably have lower costs, which means competitors that are further away will be priced out of the market. Combine this with the fact that nobody wants more landfills and quarries than necessary in their town, both enjoy extremely strong economic moats as localised monopolies. Ironically, these businesses that people often shun make excellent investments!

3. Access to unique, world-class asset

This third type of cost advantage is typically limited to commodity producers. If a company is lucky enough to own a resource deposit with lower extraction costs than any other comparable resource producer, it will likely have a competitive advantage. One interesting example is a company called Compass Minerals, which operates in the rock-salt industry. Due to the geology and the massive size of its mine, Compass is able to produce rock salt at some of the lowest costs on the globe. Coupled with its great location that allows Compass to ship salt into the American Midwest at low cost along rivers and canals, Compass has a pretty durable cost advantage over its competitors. This is an example of how two competitive advantages can come together to create an even stronger economic moat.

Such cost advantages are not limited to companies that dig stuff out of the ground. Aracruz Cellulose, a Brazilian company, is not only the largest producer of paper pulp in the world but also the lowest cost producer. Well, when Eucalyptus trees mature in about seven years in Brazil compared with 10 years in Chile and 20+ years in America, its no wonder that Aracruz is able to produce more pulp with less capital invested than anyone else.

4. Economies of scale

When thinking about cost advantages that stem from scale, remember one thing: The absolute size of a company matters much less than its size relative to rivals. Two massive firms that dominate an industry – Boeing and Airbus for example – are unlikely to have meaningful cost advantages relative to each other.

In order to understand scale advantages, it’s important to remember the difference between fixed and variable costs. Take a local grocery store for example, its fixed costs are rent and salaries for some base level of staffing, The variable costs would be the cost of merchandise and perhaps extra compensation for high traffic times of the year. Contrast this to a real-estate brokerage office. Aside from an office, a phone, a car, and a computer, there are little fixed costs. Very broadly speaking, the higher the level of fixed costs relative to variable costs, the more consolidated an industry tends to be, because the benefits of size are greater.

Cost advantages arising from greater scale can stem from large distribution networks, manufacturing scale and dominating niche markets (it is much better to be a big fish in a small pond than a bigger fish in a bigger pond).

Although manufacturing scale tends to get all of the attention in Economics 101, cost advantages stemming from large distribution networks or dominance of a niche market are just as powerful – and, in an increasingly service-oriented economy, they are more common as well.

Some companies go one step further. By continually passing on cost advantages arising from greater scale in the form of lower prices to customers, they dig a unique moat known as scale economies shared. Lower prices results in more customers and greater spending per customer, resulting in greater scale. As the company repeatedly share the cost savings with customers, a virtuous cycle arises, creating a sustainable economic moat while continually benefitting the consumers as well. This strategy has been successfully employed by retailers such as Costco, Walmart and Amazon. These businesses focus on increasing the value proposition they bring to customers by simultaneously driving prices down and improving the customer experience. Scale begets price reductions which then begets scale. This method of creating a mutually beneficial relationship with customers is truly one of the most sustainable economic moats out there.

In this article, we have learnt that network effects can lead to a very durable economic moat and cost advantages may also be a competitive advantage in price sensitive industries. However, there is no use in knowing the theory of economic moats if we are unable to put the knowledge to use and identify companies with durable competitive advantages. Therefore, in the final article, I will be sharing where to find economic moats and how to identify them. Join my telegram channel here to make sure you don’t miss it!

Multi-baggers: InMode

InMode is an Israeli company that develops and markets energy-based, minimally-invasive medical treatment in three main aesthetics market. Namely face and body contouring, medical aesthetics and women’s health.

InMode seeks to fill a “treatment gap” which comprises of patients who are

  • in the age range of 35-60 years old
  • looking for comparable results to plastic surgery, but without the shortcomings of full surgery (downtime and scars)
  • large population of patients whose skin is not responsive to other procedures
  • affordable, office-based, out-patient procedure

The industry in which InMode operates in is expected to reach USD$141 billion by 2028, representing a CAGR of 14.7% over that period. Today, North America is the dominant regional market, accounting for 37%. However, Asia Pacific is expected to register the fastest CAGR on account of rising target population.

As mentioned before, lower cost, shorter downtime and reduced side effects compared to traditional means help bolster demand for minimally-invasive procedures.

As you can see, InMode’s platforms can be categorised into three main types: Minimally Invasive, Non-Invasive and Hands-Free.

Additionally, their products are capable of doing a wide variety of procedures and they have more than one solution for each procedure. This increases consumer choice and caters to their various needs.

InMode’s products have three main components:

  1. Platforms – Includes user interface with touch screen
  2. Handpieces and Hands-free applicators – The mode of application of energy over treatment area
  3. Proprietary Software – manages proper system performance and capable of automatic temperature control, system calibration and detection of any malfunction. This allows the practitioner to focus on the treatment as the system is automatically managed by the software.

As of 2020, most of InMode’s revenue is generated from the US market. However, growth in revenue from the international market outstrips that of the US market. This is evident by the rising proportion of revenue coming from the international market.

InMode has a very established distribution network spanning worldwide. They are thus poised to tap on international growth, particularly in Asia, which is expected to see the greatest rise in demand for such procedures.

I won’t bore you with numbers so I will just bring your focus to a few key points. However, you are encourage to analyse deeper if you wish to.

As a small company with market cap of USD$4 billion, InMode has demonstrated robust profitability that leave most growth companies in envy. Despite a lackluster second quarter in 2020 due to the Covid-19 Pandemic, InMode quickly recovered and achieved 32% growth in revenue from 2019 to 2020. This is a testament to the resilience of their business and adaptability of their management and staff.

The largest expense for InMode by far is sales and marketing. I expect this to continue to rise in the future as InMode expands their distribution network. This is their main method to drive sales growth and I would be happy to see them spending more in this area if it results in sustained revenue growth.

Lastly, InMode has consistently high gross profit margins (84-86%) and operating margins (35-38%). This indicates the presence of some form of economic moat that allows InMode to earn supernormal profits.

InMode’s growth strategy comprises of four main pillars:

  1. Increase sales presence to target and expand addressable market globally – investors can observe this by watching their expenditure on sales and marketing over time
  2. further penetrate existing customers and drive recurring revenues through the sales of consumables and services – investors can thus expect that recurring revenues as a percentage of total revenues will increase over time
  3. Leverage existing technology to expand into new minimally and non-invasive applications – we can monitor this by keeping our eyes peeled for new product releases
  4. Tuck-in acquisitions and strategic partnerships – InMode is at the stage where they are bringing in truckloads of cash and are capable of acquiring smaller companies. However, investors need to keep a look out on whether their acquisitions are sensible and worth it

Using the assumptions shown, I value InMode’s intrinsic valuation to be about USD$66 per share. At the time of writing, InMode’s share price closed at USD$46.85, representing a margin of safety of around 29%.

The compensation for the President and Chief Medical Officer is relatively high compared to other companies. However, on account of the CEO and CTO’s extremely modest compensation, this can be interpreted as a recognition of key talent and that InMode is not a one-man show. This is also indicative of a fair and humble management, both desirable attributes in my opinion.

Additionally, the CEO and CTO both have greater than 10% ownership in the company. As you may recall from my previous post, owner-operators are key attributes of multi-baggers.

Another point to note is that Steve Mullholland is the owner of one of the patents of InMode’s products. His significant ownership of more than 10% also indicates his confidence in the company.

Together, insiders own almost 38% of the company and have significant skin in the game. Shareholders can thus be assured that their interests are aligned.

I see three main risks with InMode.

  1. InMode faces competiiton from larger pharmaceuticals which may have greater resources
  2. Main form of economic moat is patents, which will expire eventually
  3. CEO was co-founder of a similar company (Syneron Candela) and left that company for unknown reasons. There is a real possibility that he may leave InMode abruptly as well

Investors thus have to monitor these three aspects closely. Particularly on the second point, the earliest expiration date on some of InMode’s oldest patents is 2027. Thus, they have five years to develop other economic moats such as brand recognition or cost advantage.

To sum it up, InMode operates in an favourable industry with excellent economics. As a small company, they have a proven track record of growth, high ROE and profitability. Their consistently high margins are indicative of some form of economic moats. To top it all off, management is fair, modest and owner-operators. InMode thus checks the boxes of a potential multi-bagger. In fact, I have already taken a long position on InMode.

If you wish to discuss further about InMode or investing in general, feel free to reach out to me here or join The Dollar Sapling telegram channel to start a discussion!

Disclosure: I am long InMode. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving any compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and this information should not and cannot be construed as financial advice. It is merely for me to keep track of my thought processes. Any investment involves the taking of substantial risks, including (but not limited to) complete loss of capital. Always do your own analysis and research before making any financial decisions and consult a qualified financial advisor if you have to. Click here for the full disclaimer.